The Reality Check
Before anything else, the base rates. These are the odds you’re actually playing against.
| Milestone | What actually happens |
|---|---|
| Survive year 1 | ~90% make it |
| Survive years 2–5 | ~70% fail in this window |
| Alive at year 5 | ~50% |
| Alive at year 10 | ~10% |
| Venture-backed companies that fail | ~75% don’t return investor capital |
| Series A companies that ever reach a real exit | ~20% |
| Series A companies reaching a $500M+ exit | ~3% per year (~12% over 4 years) |
At 3–5 years post-funding, a startup is more likely to be dead or stagnant than “worth something.”
Tech startups specifically have the highest failure rate of any sector — while also producing the most unicorns. That’s the power law at work: most lose, a few win enormously.
Next: The Funding Journey